Illusion of "China's Attack on India Before 2012" - A View from Inside China on India's Foreign Strategy Assumptions

Illusion of "China's Attack on India Before 2012"

---By Chen Xiaochen, Beijing,Published:July 17,2009

The 2000 km border between China and India has been a notable absence from press headlines in the years since then-Indian PM Vajpayee’s 2003 visit to Beijing. Tensions, however, have risen again as India announced last month a plan to deploy two additional army divisions and two air force squadrons of Su-30 Fighter Unit, some 60,000 soldiers in total, in a disputed border area in the southern part of Tibet, which India claims as its state of Arunachal Pradesh.

Adding fuel to the flames is an article by Bharat Verma, editor of Indian Defense Review, predicting that China will attack India before 2012, leaving only three years to Indian government for preparation.

According to Mr. Verma, “growing unrest in China” due in part to economic downturn will leave the Chinese government looking for something to “divert the attention of its own people from ‘unprecedented’ internal dissent, growing unemployment and financial problems.” China will also want to strike India before the latter becomes powerful, which is the reason for the 2012 “deadline.” India, with its growing affiliation with the West, is yet weak under China’s fire.

But a “China’s attack” is not going to happen, and one wonders at the basis for Mr. Verma’s thinking. First, although it is true that China’s macro-economy has taken a hit from the global financial crisis, the extent of the damage is under control. Recent statistics shows China’s economy grew 7.1% in the first half of 2009, while its foreign exchange reserve has exceeded $2 trillion. China’s stimulus plan has been effective and given people confidence. China will survive the global downturn as well or better than the rest of the world’s economies.

And even if China’s economy was really all that bad, would the government try to distract “unrest” by taking military actions against India? Mr Verma’s reasoning rests on a lack of documentation. Looking into the past 60 years, China has no record of launching a war to divert public attention from anything. Moreover, while Mr. Verma supposes the Chinese Communist Party has no cards to play other than “invading India,” the Party, widely experienced in dealing with domestic disputes, will hardly in only three years have run out of all options facing potential social instability. Moreover, even if Chinese leaders considered such an option, they would certainly be aware that an external war would severely jeopardize domestic affairs.

Other reasons the author mentions in the article are also vague. The Western powers would not take kindly to a Chinese conflict with India, leaving China rightfully reluctant to use force in any case other than extreme provocation. US forces well deployed in Afghanistan and Pakistan could check any China’s military action in South Asia. And then there is also the nuclear problem: there has never been a war between two nuclear equipped nations, and both sides would have to be extremely cautious in decision-making, giving more room for less violent solutions.

Further, it is important to realize there is no reason for China to launch a war, against India in particular. Economic development, rather than military achievement, has long been the consensus of value among China’s core leaders and citizens. Despite occasional calls to “Reoccupy South Tibet (occupied Chinese territory),” China’s decision-making is always cautious. It is not possible to see a Chinese “incursion” into India, even into Tawang, an Indian-occupied Buddhist holy land over which China argues a resolute sovereignty.

Last but not least, China’s strategy, even during the 1962 border war with India, has been mainly oriented towards the east, where Taiwan is its core interest, while the recent Xinjiang unrest highlights China’s growing anti-terrorist tasks in the northwest – both issues are more important than the southwest border. If China were to be involved in a war within the next three years, as unlikely as that seems, the adversary would hardly be India. The best option, the sole option, open for the Chinese government is to negotiate around the disputed territory.

However, there is one scenario where there is possibility for war: an aggressive Indian policy toward China, a “New Forward Policy,” may aggravate border disputes and push China to use force – despite China’s appeal, as far as possible, for peaceful solutions.
Consider the 1959-1962 conflict, the only recorded war between China and India in the long history of their civilizations. After some slight friction with China in 1959, the Indian army implemented aggressive action known as its Forward Policy. The Chinese Army made a limited but successful counterattack in 1962.

Now, it seems “back to the future”. Mr. Verma asserts another war will happen before 2012, a half century after the last, regrettable one. India has started to deploy more troops in the border area, similar to its Forward Policy 50 years ago. Is Mr. Verma’s China-bashing merely a justification for more troops deployed along the border? Will India’s “New Forward Policy”, as the old one did 50 years ago, trigger a “2012 war?”

The answers lie mainly on the Indian side. Given China’s relatively small military garrison in Tibet, Indian’s 60,000 additional soldiers may largely break the balance. If India is as “pacific” as Mr. Verma says, and is sincere in its border negotiation, China-India friendship will remain. After all, China shares a long and mostly friendly cultural exchange with India as well as other neighbors. Now China is seeking deeper cooperation, wider coordination, and better consensus with India, especially in the global recession, and peace is a precondition for doing so. China wants to say, “We are on the same side,” as the Indian Ambassador did in a recent interview in China.

Thus, “China will attack India before 2012” is a provocative and inflammatory illusion.

(Chen Xiaochen serves as a journalist of editorial and comments in China Business News.)

Source: ChinaStakes

Ethnic Strife Comes to Haunt China

URUMQI, China – Sobbing Muslim women scuffled with riot police, and Chinese men wielding steel pipes, meat cleavers and sticks rampaged through the streets Tuesday as ethnic tensions worsened in China's oil-rich Xinjiang territory, forcing officials to declare a curfew.

The new violence in Xinjiang's capital erupted only a few hours after the city's top officials told reporters the streets in Urumqi were returning to normal following a riot that killed 156 people Sunday. The officials also said more than 1,000 suspects had been rounded up since the spasm of attacks by Muslim Uighurs against Han Chinese, the ethnic majority.

The chaos returned when hundreds of young Han men seeking revenge began gathering on sidewalks with kitchen knives, clubs, shovels and wooden poles. They spent most of the afternoon marching through the streets, smashing windows of Muslim restaurants and trying to push past police cordons protecting minority neighborhoods. Riot police successfully fought them back with volleys of tear gas and a massive show of force.



At one point, the mob chased a boy who looked like he was a Uighur. The youth, who appeared to be about 12, climbed a tree, and the crowd tried to whack his legs with their sticks as the terrified boy cried. He was eventually allowed to leave unharmed as the rioters ran off to focus on another target.

After the crowds thinned out, a curfew was announced from 9 p.m. to 8 a.m. Police cars cruised the streets in the evening, telling people to go home, and they complied.




The ugly scenes earlier in the day highlighted how far away the Communist Party was from one of its top goals: creating a "harmonious society." The unrest was also an embarrassment for the Chinese leadership, which is getting ready to celebrate the 60th anniversary of Communist rule and wants to show it has created a stable country.

Harmony has been hard to achieve in Xinjiang, a rugged region three times the size of Texas with deserts, mountains and the promise of huge oil and natural gas reserves. Xinjiang is also the homeland for 9 million Uighurs (pronounced WEE-gers), a Turkic-speaking group.

Many Uighurs believe the Han Chinese, who have been flooding into the region in recent years, are trying to crowd them out. They often accuse the Han of prejudice and waging campaigns to restrict their religion and culture.

The Han Chinese allege the Uighurs are backward and ungrateful for all the economic development and modernization the Han have brought to Xinjiang. They also complain that the Uighurs' religion — a moderate form of Sunni Islam — keeps them from blending into Chinese society, which is officially communist and largely secular.



"We have been good to them. We take good care of them," said Liu Qiang, a middle-aged Han Chinese businessman who joined the marchers. "But the Uighurs are stupid. They think we have more money than they do because we're unfair to them."

U.N. High Commissioner for Human Rights Navi Pillay called the violence a "major tragedy."

"I urge Uighur and Han civic leaders, and the Chinese authorities at all levels, to exercise great restraint so as not to spark further violence and loss of life," she said.

In other violence Tuesday, witnesses said groups of about 10 Uighur men with bricks and knives attacked Han Chinese passers-by and shop-owners outside the city's southern railway station, until police ran them off, witnesses said.



"Whenever the rioters saw someone on the street, they would ask 'Are you a Uighur?' If they kept silent or couldn't answer in the Uighur language, they would get beaten or killed," said a restaurant worker near the station, who only gave his surname, Ma.

It was not immediately clear if anyone was killed in those reported attacks.

The authorities have been trying to control the unrest by blocking the Internet and limiting access to texting services on cell phones. At the same time, police have generally been allowing foreign media to cover the tensions.

On Tuesday, officials arranged a tour for journalists of sites that were attacked by Uighur rioters on Sunday. But the public relations event backfired spectacularly during the tour's first stop — a car dealership in southern Urumqi where several autos were burned by rioters.

After interviewing people at the business, the journalists crossed the road to a Uighur market, where angry women in traditional, brightly colored headscarves began to gather.

One woman who gave her name as Aynir said police arrived Monday evening and arrested about 300 men. The authorities were looking for men with fresh wounds or other signs they joined the rioting.

"My husband was detained at gunpoint. They were hitting people. They were stripping people naked. My husband was scared so he locked the door, but the police broke down the door and took him away," Aynir said. "He had nothing to do with the riots."

The crowd of women swelled to about 200 and they began marching in the street, chanting, "Freedom!" and "Release our children!" They were quickly sandwiched by hundreds of police on both ends of the road, along with trucks with water cannons. Some women screamed at the security forces and jostled the men, who were armed with assault rifles, tear gas guns, shields and sticks. The crowd dispersed after a standoff that lasted 90 minutes.

Uighurs have said this week's rioting was triggered by the June 25 deaths of Uighur factory workers killed in a brawl in the southern Chinese city of Shaoguan. State-run media have said two workers died, but many Uighurs believe more were killed and said the incident was an example of how little the government cared about them.

In the days that followed, graphic photos spread on the Internet purportedly showing at least a half-dozen bodies of Uighurs, with Han Chinese standing over them, arms raised in victory. Expunged from some sites, the photos were posted and reposted, some on overseas servers beyond the reach of censors.



In a sign the government was trying to address communal grievances, the official Xinhua News Agency said Tuesday that 13 people had been arrested in the factory fight, including three from Xinjiang. Two others were arrested for spreading rumors on the Internet that Xinjiang employees had raped two female workers, the report said, citing a local police official.

Chinese officials have largely dismissed claims that the Urumqi rioting was caused by long-simmering resentments among the Uighurs. They said the crowds were stirred up by U.S.-exiled Uighur activist Rebiya Kadeer and her overseas followers, who used the Internet to spread rumors.

"Using violence, making rumors, and distorting facts are what cowards do because they are afraid to see social stability and ethnic solidarity in Xinjiang," Foreign Ministry spokesman Qin Gang said in Beijing during a blistering verbal attack on Kadeer, who has denied the allegations.

Li Zhi, Urumqi's highest-ranking Communist Party official, also railed against Kadeer as he addressed the angry Han mobs. Standing on an armored police vehicle, Li pumped his fist as he shouted through a megaphone, "Strike down Rebiya!"

Source: Yahoo News

Adios Michael Jackson

As the world says their final goodbyes to MJ, I would like to reminiscent on some of the things that I remember MJ by, and recall some of facets about the man and the 'Icon' that have left an indomitable impact on not only me but also on million others who have grown to like, adore and even idolize the true 'Superstar' of the modern age, Michael Jackson.

One of the first things that comes to mind is that he made the proverb "Black is Beautiful", more pertinent and relevant in a world where there was still discrimination and segregation on the color of the ones skin. I would like to highlight one point here; I'm not just talking about the discrimination in America and Europe alone, but also much closer home in India, where the color of ones skin is often associated with their status in society.He inspired millions of disadvantaged, deprived and even disenchanted youth to create a niche for themselves through the talent that they posses within, be it in music, athletics, sports and academics. He inspired one and all by instilling the confidence that art and talent is above all man made differentiations and demarcations.He turned the much cumbersome and often neglected part of making videos and choreography an art form. He opened a whole new genre of live performance and revealed to the world the true revenue generating and marketing potential that extravagant and lavish live performance and brilliantly choreographed and meticulously planned videos had in them that had up until MJ had been left untapped to its full potential. He showed the world how art and charity can bring happiness to million who are less fortunate. Through his performance and music he reached out to millions, both in person and also emotionally and in spirit, along with some of the 35 charities that he supported. His songs were full of social messages and often tackled difficult topics and issues that the mainstream media stayed away from.

He brought these issues into public consciousness by using his mass appeal. He always was steadfast on the belief, which is still clichéd but often ignored to a great extend that, "With great power, comes great responsibility". And the single biggest tribute that I can pay him in this regard is; MJ did his part well. I hope we all could say that someday.

Although there are many detractors that would say otherwise from what I've said here, all I can say in conclusion is; the world could never have too many Michael Jacksons. But unfortunately, there was only one, and chances are there will never be anyone like him in a very long time.

We'll Miss You MJ. You'll continue to live on in our hearts. Rest In Peace Wherever You Are!!!!!

Roger Federer's Ascent to the Top of the Tennis World

----By Agence France-Presse, Updated: Sunday, July 05, 2009 6:27 PM






Roger Federer won a record 15th Grand Slam title on Sunday when he defeated Andy Roddick to win a sixth Wimbledon crown. The Swiss star has now passed Pete Sampras's mark of 14 Grand Slam victories which he equalled when he won the French Open last month:

Roger Federer won a record 15th Grand Slam title on Sunday when he defeated Andy Roddick to win a sixth Wimbledon crown. The Swiss star has now passed Pete Sampras's mark of 14 Grand Slam victories which he equalled when he won the French Open last month:

2003 Wimbledon

bt Mark Philippoussis (AUS) 7-6 (7/5), 6-2, 7-6 (7/3)

- Federer, 21, wins first Grand Slam title to turn potential into silverware. His victory, five years after winning the junior title, also ended all doubts about his nerve on the big stage.

2004 Australian Open

bt Marat Safin (RUS) 7-6 (7/3), 6-4, 6-2

- Federer, who had replaced Juan Carlos Ferrero as the new world number one by reaching the final, celebrated in style by beating Safin, who had been in fine form in Melbourne seeing off Andre Agassi and Andy Roddick.

2004 Wimbledon

bt Andy Roddick (USA) 4-6, 7-5, 7-6 (7/3), 6-4

- Less than a month after a disappointing third round exit at the French Open, Federer bounces back. Roddick had been a set and a break ahead, but a rain delay helps the Swiss recover his composure.

2004 US Open

bt Lleyton Hewitt (AUS) 6-0, 7-6 (7/3), 6-0

- Hewitt, the 2001 champion, came into the final on a 16-match winning streak but Federer was unstoppable, becoming the first man in history to win his first four Grand Slam finals, and the first since Mats Wilander in 1988 to win three majors in a year.

2005 Wimbledon

bt Andy Roddick (USA) 6-2, 7-6 (7/2), 6-4

- Federer joins Pete Sampras and Bjorn Borg as the only players to win three Wimbledon titles in a row in the Open era. Roddick joked: "Maybe next time I'll just punch him or something."

2005 US Open

bt Andre Agassi (USA) 6-3, 2-6, 7-6 (7/1), 6-1

- Federer wins sixth Grand Slam title and shatters 35-year-old Agassi's dreams of becoming the oldest winner of the title. Ken Rosewall, at 39, had been the previous oldest finalist against Jimmy Connors in 1974.

2006 Australian Open

bt Marcos Baghdatis (CYP) 5-7, 7-5, 6-0, 6-2

- Unseeded Baghdatis, 20, the world number 54 gives Federer a scare when he wins first set and goes a break up in the second. But Federer imposes his authority as a tiring Baghdatis needs treatment on his calf.

2006 Wimbledon

bt Rafael Nadal (ESP) 6-0, 7-6 (7/5), 6-7 (2/7), 6-3

- Just a month after losing to his new rival at the French Open, Federer puts an end to a five-match losing streak against the Spaniard. He also becomes only the third man in the Open era after Bjorn Borg and Sampras to win four Wimbledons in a row.

2006 US Open

bt Andy Roddick (USA) 6-2, 4-6, 7-5, 6-1

- Federer wins third successive title in New York and becomes first man in the Open era to win three successive Wimbledon and US Open titles in the same years.

2007 Australian Open

bt Fernando Gonzalez (CHI) 7-6 (7/2), 6-4, 6-4

- Federer wins 10th Grand Slam title and extends his winning run to 36 matches. Also first man to win a Grand Slam title without dropping a set since Borg at the 1980 French Open.

2007 Wimbledon

bt Rafael Nadal (ESP) 7-6 (9/7), 4-6, 7-6 (7/3), 2-6, 6-2

- Federer emulates Borg by winning five straight Wimbledon titles but he was given a huge scare by Nadal in a classic final and a taste of what was to come 12 months later when the Spaniard takes his crown.

2007 US Open

bt Novak Djokovic (SRB) 7-6 (7/4), 7-6 (7/2), 6-4

- Federer wins fourth consecutive US Open despite trailing by a break in each. He becomes the first man to win Wimbledon and the US Open for four years in a row, and the first to win four straight US titles since Bill Tilden in 1923.

2008 US Open

bt Andy Murray (GBR) 6-2, 7-5, 6-2

- The Swiss wins 13th Grand Slam crown and fifth consecutive US Open title. He moves one Grand Slam title ahead of Roy Emerson and one behind the record 14 won by Pete Sampras. "I'm not going to stop at 13," says Federer.

2009 French Open

bt Robin Soderling (SWE) 6-1, 7-6 (7/1), 6-4

- Federer finally wins the French Open after losing the previous three finals and equals the record 14 Grand Slam wins of Sampras. Not even an intruder who confronted him in the second set and steady rain could derail his charge past Soderling into the history books.

2009 Wimbledon

bt Andy Roddick (USA x6) 5-7, 7-6 (8/6), 7-6 (7/5), 3-6, 16-14

- Another Wimbledon epic which featured the longest final set in the history of men's Wimbledon finals. Roddick, whose only loss of serve came in the last game of the decider, was reduced to tears. Sampras hails Federer as the greatest player of all time.